Sunday, June 12, 2011

How titan from Rs 30 became 4100 in 10 years? a brief study

The stock of Titan was trading at about Rs 30 during September 2001. Subsequently, it kept gathering pace, eventually reaching a peak of about Rs 1,700 in October 2007. If you would have invested Rs 100,000 in Titan in 2001, it would be worth about Rs 5.6 m in October 2007.Now in 2011  1.4 cr How did such an amazing appreciation in price come aboutOne part of the equation is the company’s profits which grew at a compounded annual growth rate of about 55% from the start to the end of the period under consideration. Each time the company made profits and retained a part of those profits, those retained earnings got added to its book value. During that period, the company’s book value per share grew from Rs 36 to Rs 87. But that is just half of the story. That’s because Titan traded at a P/B multiple of 0.8 times in September 2001. If that were to remain the same till the end of the period, then the stock would reach a price of only about Rs 70 by October 2007. 
But that was not the case. Titan was a beneficiary of a rising appraisal of its business by the market. It thus started trading at a hefty P/B multiple of 17 times by April 20011. That set the stage for the amazing rise in its stock price from Rs 30 to Rs 4400
.Thus, it is the interaction of the above two factors that come together to determine the market price of a company. The next time you see the price of a company shoot up, try to go behind the scenes and have a look at which of the factors is at play and why. It can be quite an insightful exercise.
NB: Titan's growth is not saturated it can  appreciate more from current level. lot of domestic institution as well as FII'S are buying it . Stock can multiply to nearly 3 times from the current level .

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