Wednesday, August 8, 2012

GMR INFRA -----Buy for long term 4-5 yrs CMP 21 /- Tgt 55 / 80 /++

In the next 20 to 30  years, urban population in India will grow at around 800 
million, more than twice the population of USA today, 70% net new employment will 
be generated in cities, and 60 cities will  reach population of 1 million compared to
 35 cities in Europe today. Average national income shall rise up to  three to 
four-fold in the next 2 to 3 decades. Therefore, for infrastructure developers like 
GMR, there is hardly any limit.The company has its order book position to an amount 
around Rs. Rs 3200 crore that is quite robust .The company has been in the process 
of accomplishing the projects by Rs.1000 crore every year. The company has acquired 
2 power projects with a total capacity of 1970 MW in the year under review - EMCO 
and SJK power projects. The necessary gas supply for the project is assured to be 
made by the government for that purpose. The company is currently having 6 highway 
projects under operation across India measuring a total length of around 
421 km (1684 Lane Km). These include a balanced mix of both Annuity and Toll-based
 projects.The company thinks for  developing aviation SEZ spread over 250 acres 
andmulti-product SEZ in another 250 acres close to RGIA.GMR Infrastructure Ltd 
divested its 50% stake in US-based InterGen NV to China Huaneng Group for $1.23 
billion (around Rs5,635 crore). Given the high debt position of the firm, this is 
certainly a positive development and the money received from Inter Gen sale to the
 tune of Rs10 billion would come in handy to fund the ongoing road and power 
projects without dilution.”The robust earning generation is expected to be 
commenced post 2013 the stock is currently being traded 2.5 times  to its book 
value. We give it 5 multiple from the present book value and thus the future  
target price of the company shall therefore be expected as 75 in one year horizon 
and 100 to 120 any time for more than 2 years holding time period.The stock is 
currently below 30 days moving average. The positive momentum for short to medium 
term is expected only when it crosses around 43 to 44  level. Meanwhile,the return
 on average equity is  15.92 Which signifies  its condition to be well acceptable. 
Debt equity ratio is justifiable for big companies having paid up capital of 364.13
 to have 0.44  level because of the sector it belongs to currently. The stock is 
currently under accumulation phase and once the company crosses  its 30 days moving
 average which is at a level of around 42 to 43 the company may post upswing to 
next level .
BUY THIS STOCK AROUND Rs.15 to 20 /- ...for a long term target of 55 / 75 / 90+++ ......A multibagger in future .

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